Wonderland Trail Snow Outlook 2016

Original Blog post: May 11, 2016

Donning skins above Fryingpan Creek bridge

Donning skins above Fryingpan Creek bridge

This is the earliest I've posted a Wonderland Trail conditions report or snow outlook. On May 10, 2016 I biked into the still closed White River entrance to Mt. Rainier National Park and hiked to Summerland and Panhandle Gap. More precisely, I hiked through the forest section but donned skins just above the Fryingpan Creek bridge and skied from just below Panhandle Gap to the bridge, then reversed the process for a 12 hour day. Some of the information I'm writing in this blog post is not science based, I am offering an opinion based on years of experience hiking in the park. However, this is a measured fact from the USDA:

•  April experienced record high temperatures throughout the entire Pacific Northwest, causing much of the remaining snowpack to melt and runoff. Over 80 percent of all SNOTEL sites with at least 15 years of data set all new melt rate records for April.

•  Temperatures recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport reached 87 degrees Monday (May 2) afternoon, tying the day’s record set in 1945, meteorologist Josh Smith said.

Temperatures have remained high for the first part of this month; when I left for this trip the local forecast was for mid 70's, warming to 80 degrees by Friday (May 13). It is probably safe to surmise that if these seasonally warm temperatures continue in May and June, then the melt off will continue to set records. The upshot of this is that Wonderland Trail snow conditions will be weeks ahead of a "normal" year. Anecdotally I put the levels on May 10, 2016 slightly above June 3, 2014, when I did this same trip that year. 2015 was such an unusually low snow year that comparisons to a year ago would be moot. I have compared video and photos for these two trips to come to this conclusion. Here are a few shots or video screen grabs:

reference snow levels on background hill

reference snow levels on background hill

Panhandle Gap snow levels

Panhandle Gap snow levels

 

I found the hike through the forest (I hesitate to say trail as most of the trail was buried) had sections where the snow was up to 7 feet deep. This may reflect that this winter's heavy snows dumped heavily at lower elevations and the sun does not penetrate this thick forest; melting relies on ambient temperature. However, I could see the difference in my own tracks just hours later as I descended, losing definition in just half a day's melt.

It's still early to make concrete predictions, but June's forecast looks to be about normal or slightly above concerning temperature. This is from accuweather.com:

June forecast: the bolder lines are forecast highs and lows

June forecast: the bolder lines are forecast highs and lows

As a general outlook the hiker can expect successful Wonderland circumnavigations starting the last half of June; this of course comes with the caveat that one must be prepared for navigation in snow, prepared for camping in snow at the higher elevation camps, and perhaps contend with ongoing trail maintenance issues like blow downs and possible bridge outages. The usual snow areas should see rapid melting out for a more "traditional" hike the latter part of July on. I'll make one more observation concerning trail conditions, and that is this side of the Cascades saw high winds and heavy snow/rain at times this winter. There are many roads that need repair, and reports of blow downs on various trails point to an above average task for trail crews this year. Factor in shrinking budgets and the "manicured trail" expectations for the Wonderland may fall short. In my hike there were still a bunch of blow downs that needed to be cleared from the road, and the forest trail area saw a fair amount of downed trees.

Stats for BHS (bike/hike/ski): 8 miles bike/9 miles hike/3 miles skin-ski, 3500' elevation gain

Summerland shelter on May 10, 2016

Summerland shelter on May 10, 2016

Wonderland Trail Snow Outlook 2015

glacier lillies already out

glacier lillies already out

One to two months ahead. Pretty much sums it up when it comes to this year's snow levels in most parts of the Cascades. Usually I take a trip up to Panhandle Gap in June or July and report on the snow conditions, but this year it hardly seems necessary. Yesterday my daughter and I took a jaunt to Indian Henry's Hunting Ground on the Wonderland trail, nestled in a picturesque area at 5400 feet. There were no snow patches until above 5000 feet and what remains is patchy and sparse, with depths of no more than a foot. If current warm weather trends continue, this snow will be gone in a matter of days. I dare say one could hike the Wonderland beginning in June and experience the same kind of conditions normally seen in late July (in fact this is what I did, see report here). Problem areas may occur due to the lack of park personnel this early, as in facilities are not open and trail maintenance has not begun. Expect blow downs and possible river/creek crossings where the bridges have been washed out, although these will be high priority as soon as the crews get out. There is always a problematic area on the Wonderland below Martha Falls in the Stevens Canyon area that sees erosion and washout every year. Additionally, the steep areas on the trail between the North Puyallup camp and Klapatche park may be difficult to navigate if snow is still present. However, this can be bypassed if necessary by taking the St Andrews trail out of Klapatche Park and circumventing via the West Side Road to the North Puyallup camp. And of course the park service always issues navigation warnings concerning snow over Panhandle Gap. In a nutshell, anyone hiking the trail during the "usual" season starting in late June should enjoy snow free steps.

sparse snow at Indian Henry's (5400')

sparse snow at Indian Henry's (5400')